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☆ Weekly jobless claims rise to highest level since August
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-09 | by ( Lucy Bayly | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

New York CNN —First-time applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to 231,000, the highest level since August, in another sign that the white-hot labor market is starting to cool off. Thursday’s data also showed that the number of continuing claims, or applications from people who have filed for unemployment for at least one week, was 1.78 million. That’s an increase of 17,000 from the prior week, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Although the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% last month, it’s the 27th consecutive month that the jobless rate has held under 4%, matching a streak last seen in the late 1960s. The Federal Reserve has been battling inflation by raising its key lending rate in the hopes of slowing the economy.

Persons: ”, Chris Rupkey, Jerome Powell, ” Ian Shepherdson, It’s Organizations: New, New York CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, “, Federal Reserve, Pantheon Economics Locations: New York, Fwdbonds

☆ This key US inflation gauge fell last month by the most since 2020
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The Producer Price Index, which measures the average price changes that businesses pay to suppliers, fell 0.5% on a monthly basis. It’s the largest monthly drop since April 2020, when the rapidly spreading Covid-19 virus caused a sharp economic contraction. When stripping out the volatile food and energy categories, core PPI was unchanged for the month, bringing the yearly increase to 2.4%. On Tuesday, the October Consumer Price Index showed that US consumer prices were unchanged for the month, contributing to a slowdown in the annual inflation rate to 3.2%. “Fed officials are getting to keep their cake and eat it too, so far with economic growth and inflation cooling.

Persons: Price, ”, Chris Rupkey, Andrew Butters, “ There’s, ” Butters, we’ve Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI, FwdBonds, “ Fed, CPI, Indiana University Kelley School of Business, Fed, CNN Locations: Minneapolis

Market-churning economic news is lacking this week, but that doesn’t mean Wall Street and the economy can rest easy. The political news heats up, with Donald Trump set to testify in his civil fraud trial in New York. And elections take place across the country on Tuesday that could show where the country stands politically one year out from the 2024 election. Meanwhile, a softer-than-expected jobs report on Friday had some analysts saying the economy was headed for a downturn. “The unemployment rate rose just a tenth to 3.9% in October versus September which the BLS called little changed,” he said.

Persons: Donald Trump, State Anthony Blinken, Bond, ”, Julia Pollak, ” Pollak, ” Chris Rupkey, Powell, ” Powell, “ Organizations: GOP, Hamas, State, West Bank, Federal Reserve, ZipRecruiter, Fed, Bureau of Labor Statistics, BLS, BCA Research Locations: New York, Miami, Israel, Iraq, Turkey, Washington

☆ US wholesale inflation heated up last month amid higher gas prices
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —Wholesale price increases of US goods and services jumped higher for a third consecutive month, influenced by still-high energy prices, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. September’s overall increase was driven by a 0.9% gain in goods prices due to higher energy prices and food prices, BLS data shows. Gas prices hit new yearly highs in September, as oil prices pushed past $92 a barrel amid supply cuts and catastrophic flooding in Libya. The higher gas prices seen in August and September may filter through to some products and services but shouldn’t ultimately keep inflation higher in the months to come, said Stuart Hoffman, PNC Financial Services’ senior economic adviser. However, the Israel and Hamas war in the Middle East does add volatility to energy prices, he said.

Persons: Price, ”, Gregory Daco, Jerome Powell, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, shouldn’t, Stuart Hoffman, ” Hoffman Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, PPI, PNC Financial Services Locations: Minneapolis, August’s, Libya, Israel

☆ Here's why this jobs report is going to cost you
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( David Goldman | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

So you’d think some really, really, shockingly good news about the job market would give Americans’ spirits a boost. So a robust job market won’t make most people feel like the economy is strong. The Fed is working to slow the economy by hiking interest rates — the only tool it has to fight inflation. We should never cheer a bad job market. But a job market that has remained this healthy for this long really isn’t excellent news for average Americans struggling to pay their bills.

Persons: Joe Biden’s, ”, Chris Rupkey, Jamie Dimon Organizations: New, New York CNN, Federal Reserve, Fed, CNN, SSRS, JPMorgan Locations: New York, Government

☆ Is America’s economy really as bad as Republican presidential candidates say it is?
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-24 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

New York CNN —To hear Republican presidential candidates describe the US economy, you’d think it was in a deep recession, with growth and productivity choked off by President Joe Biden’s policies. The economy is strong, but most Americans say they don’t feel good about it, according to polls. HousingAnother reason voters are down on the economy: Housing affordability is at its lowest point in decades. In fact, economic growth is booming thanks to the strong labor market and resilient consumer spending. We won’t have a complete read on third-quarter economic growth until late October, but already, forecasts for GDP “are running wild on the upside,” writes Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FwdBonds.

Persons: New York CNN —, Joe Biden’s, Biden, Republicans can’t, what’s, — it’s, Jerome Powell, Trump, “, It’s, deride “, ”, Chris Rupkey Organizations: New, New York CNN, Republicans, GOP, CNN, Federal, Inflation Fox News, Wisconsin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve, Trump, Biden, Corporations, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve Locations: New York, Ukraine, America, United States

☆ Despite downward revision of 306,000 jobs, the US labor market is still hot
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +2 min

As part of the agency’s annual benchmark review of payroll data, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down March 2023’s employment gains by 306,000 positions. When the economy stops growing, we will see non-farm payroll employment fall. The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report is based upon survey responses from employers across a wide swath of industries. Wednesday’s preliminary benchmark revision won’t change the existing employment data. The monthly totals for 2022 will be updated in February 2024, when the final benchmark revision is issued.

Persons: Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, ” Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, of Labor Statistics, Labor, BLS, Quarterly Locations: Minneapolis

☆ Americans are shopping less. But the US economic engine is still humming
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-23 | by ( Allison Morrow | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

That’s important, because Americans’ spending on goods and services accounts for two-thirds of US gross domestic product. Historically, sluggish retail sales, credit card delinquency and even shoplifting have been signs of a dark cloud on the horizon. The question of credit card debt is another area where the nuance matters. And as a share of total credit card debt, it is relatively low. But Americans’ credit card debt is unquestionably rising.

Persons: CNN Business ’, New York CNN —, Macy’s, they’ve, Taylor Swift, Barbie, ”, Ubers, Covid, Taylor, Sarah Yenesel, Chris Rupkey, Leticia Miranda, That’s, TJ Maxx, Louis Navellier, they’re, Brett Ryan, —, Alicia Wallace, you’ll Organizations: CNN Business, New York CNN, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Nike, FwdBonds, Atlanta Federal Reserve, “, “ Retailers, Deutsche Bank, Walmart, Amazon, Federal Reserve, Bank of America Locations: New York

☆ What to expect from the jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-04 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

But markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report Friday morning. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the government’s jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Last July, for example, the US economy added 568,000 jobs — more than double the 250,000 that economists had expected. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady.

Persons: Minneapolis CNN — Fitch, ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, ” Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Business, Conference Board, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, Labor Department, “, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ What to expect from the July jobs report: Steady, but cooler growth
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —Despite Tuesday’s credit rating downgrade amid concerns about the challenges facing the United States, markets and economists are expecting another solid jobs report on Friday. And while economic data isn’t typically the sexiest of topics, the monthly jobs report has in recent months delivered plenty of excitement and its fair share of surprises. Come Friday, the government’s jobs report for this July might not end up being quite so shocking. In fact, it could be relatively humdrum: A slight cooling in job growth, and unemployment holding steady. The broader economic scorecard for the United States makes the downgrade all the more “bizarre” and puzzling, noted top economists, including Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Persons: ”, Daniel Zhao, Refinitiv, Chris Rupkey, That’s, Michael Gapen, Janet Yellen, Glassdoor’s Zhao, ” Zhao, there’s, ” Andy Challenger, Challenger, Gus Faucher, they’re, Becky Frankiewicz, “ Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Glassdoor, Bank of America, ” Bank of America, Fitch, Challenger, “ Companies, PNC Financial Services Group, CNN, Labor Statistics, BLS, “ Employers, ManpowerGroup Locations: Minneapolis, United States

☆ US consumer confidence jumps to highest level since July 2021
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-25 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN —High interest rates aren’t souring Americans’ moods: A key measurement of consumer confidence just shot up to a level not seen since July 2021. The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index hit 117 in July, rising from 110.1 the month before, according to new data released Tuesday. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Consumer spending, which is a key driver of US economic activity, has eased somewhat in recent months but remains resilient. The Commerce Department on Friday will release the latest data on consumer spending alongside a critical inflation gauge for the Fed.

Persons: ”, Dana Peterson, “, Nathan Howard, ” Ryan Sweet, Chris Rupkey, FwdBonds, Barbie Organizations: Minneapolis CNN —, Conference Board, Washington , D.C, Bloomberg, Getty, University of Michigan’s, Oxford Economics, ‘ Times, Commerce Department, Fed Locations: Minneapolis, Georgetown, Washington ,, Michigan, America

☆ PPI report: Another key inflation gauge fell sharply in May
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-14 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

Driven by a decline in energy prices and food prices, this inflation measure has now decelerated for 11 consecutive months. Potential relief for consumersThe PPI is a closely watched inflation gauge, since it captures average price shifts upstream of the consumer. Stripping out the more volatile categories of energy and food, the core PPI index showed that prices increased 0.2% from April and moderated to 2.8% on an annual basis. The May PPI report is the second piece of good inflation news in a two-day span: On Tuesday, the Consumer Price Index showed that inflation eased to 4% on an annual basis in May. “We can’t keep getting inflation data like this and maintain inflation is out of control,” he wrote.

Persons: Price, It’s, ” Kurt Rankin, ”, Chris Rupkey, Rupkey Organizations: Minneapolis CNN, Bureau of Labor Statistics, PNC Financial Services Group, PPI, Federal Reserve, CPI Locations: Minneapolis

☆ What the April jobs report means for you, your employer, and the Fed
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-05 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Minneapolis CNN —High prices, rising interest rates and banking uncertainty be damned: The US labor market is still chugging right along. “The American labor market right now is simply unstoppable,” RSM economist Joseph Brusuelas wrote in a note Friday. “This is what a soft landing would look like, with job growth gradually slowing to a more sustainable pace,” Faucher added. The milestone comes just three years after the Covid-19 pandemic caused mass layoffs that pushed the Black unemployment rate as high as 16.8%. “Make no mistake, the Black [unemployment] rate is still too high,” Shierholz tweeted.

☆ US consumer confidence improved in March
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-28 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

The business group’s Consumer Confidence Index increased to 104.2 in March from an upwardly revised reading of 103.4 the month before. The March headline index saw a boost from consumers’ improved levels of confidence for the six-month-ahead time frame. The Expectations Index increased to 73 from 70.4 in February, while the Present Situation Index dipped to 151.1 from 153. The Conference Board’s confidence index and the University of Michigan’s twice-a-month consumer sentiment index are two leading gauges of consumers’ attitudes toward the current and future strength of the economy. Although the two indexes typically track similarly over time, the consumer confidence index is more influenced by employment and labor market conditions, while the Michigan sentiment index has a greater emphasis on household finances and the impact of inflation.

☆ Premarket stocks: Consumers are keeping the economy afloat... for now
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-30 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

What’s happening: Americans appear to be indulging in a healthy dose of retail therapy despite stubbornly high inflation and the possibility of a recession ahead. Consumer spending is a major driver of the economy, and the last two months of the year can account for about 20% of total retail sales — even more for some retailers, according to NRF. But when the Federal Reserve is actively trying to squash high inflation rates, they risk becoming a fly in the ointment. “Consumers’ spending is more or less unfazed not only by high inflation, but also the rate hikes intended to get prices under control,” economists at Wells Fargo wrote. The high rate of spending could agitate investors in this good-news-is-bad-news economy because it adds to inflationary pressures.

☆ US consumer confidence falls to lowest level since July
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-29 | by ( Alicia Wallace | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

Minneapolis CNN Business —US consumer confidence fell in November as inflation and economic uncertainty continued to loom large and potentially dampen holiday shopping plans. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index measured 100.2 for the month, lower than the downwardly revised 102.2 in October. The index is at its lowest level since July, when it fell to 95.7 amid spiking gas prices and worsening inflation. “If we had a combination of higher prices and higher unemployment at the same time, I think we’d be seeing a very different consumer than what we see right now,” he said. While consumer confidence has fallen, it still remains relatively resilient; but it is unlikely to last, said Chris Rupkey, chief economist of FwdBonds LLC, in a note on Tuesday.

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